Where the data comes from

Volatility and correlation for US stocks and ETFs are calculated from real historical daily prices sourced via Tiingo. Canadian stocks and ETFs use real historical daily prices sourced via MarketStack. When a holding isn't yet in our database — a very new listing, a thinly-traded name, or a typo — Analyze falls back to a conservative estimate rather than failing, and that fallback is noted below wherever it applies.

Portfolio Volatility

Each holding's individual volatility is the annualized standard deviation of its real daily returns over roughly the past year, calculated as:

Your overall portfolio volatility then combines every holding's volatility, its weight in your portfolio, and how each pair of holdings moves together (their correlation):

This is standard portfolio variance — the same formula used in modern portfolio theory. Bonds and precious metals use a fixed volatility estimate by type (e.g. government bonds are assumed lower-volatility than high-yield corporate bonds), since these aren't priced through the same real-time equity data pipeline.

Diversification Score (HHI)

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index measures concentration — how much of your portfolio sits in a small number of holdings. It's the sum of each holding's squared weight:

A perfectly equal 10-holding portfolio scores 1,000. A portfolio concentrated entirely in one holding scores 10,000. Lower generally means more diversified — but a low score isn't automatically "better," since concentration can be a deliberate strategy choice.

Correlation

For any two holdings with real price history, correlation is the standard Pearson correlation coefficient calculated from their real daily returns over the same time window:

Ranges from −1 (perfectly opposite movement) to +1 (perfectly lockstep). Real price series can differ slightly in length between holdings — a recent IPO has less history than a decades-old stock — so Analyze trims every series to the shortest common length before comparing, ensuring correlation is always measured over the same window for every pair.

Strategy Alignment Grade

Each of the four strategies (Aggressive Growth, Growth, Blend, Income) has its own expected ranges — for volatility, bond allocation, crypto allocation, and single-position size. Your portfolio starts at a score of 100, and points are deducted for each characteristic that falls outside the expected range for your chosen strategy. The result is a letter grade reflecting how closely your actual portfolio matches the profile of your stated strategy — not a judgment of whether the strategy itself is a good fit for you.

Sector composition is measured on two independent dimensions, not one:

Primary axis — Growth / Cyclical / Defensive. Every equity holding is classified into exactly one of these three, based on how that sector tends to behave through the economic cycle:

• Growth — Technology, Communication Services
• Cyclical — Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials, Energy, Real Estate
• Defensive — Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities

Bonds and Crypto are tracked as their own separate categories, not sector-classified — a crypto holding only counts toward your Crypto percentage, never toward Growth, avoiding double-counting.

Secondary tag — Income. This is intentionally independent from the primary axis, not a fourth slice competing for the same 100%. A sector can be both Cyclical-and-Income (Financials, Real Estate, Energy) or Defensive-and-Income (Utilities, Consumer Staples) at the same time. It reflects how much of your portfolio sits in sectors that typically generate meaningful dividend or interest income, regardless of which cyclical/defensive bucket they also fall into.

Because Growth/Cyclical/Defensive only cover equity sectors with a clear classification, these three percentages — plus Bonds and Crypto — won't always sum to exactly 100%. A holding whose sector doesn't map cleanly to any of the three (or an unrecognized ticker) simply isn't counted toward any of them.

🎲 Monte Carlo Simulation

Runs 500 simulated future paths for your portfolio using Geometric Brownian Motion — a standard model for simulating random price movement, using your real calculated portfolio volatility as the risk input and your chosen expected return as the drift. Each simulated day's return is drawn from a normal distribution seeded by these two parameters. Results are shown as percentile bands (10th/25th/50th/75th/90th) across your chosen time horizon. This models a range of statistically plausible outcomes — it is not a prediction of what will actually happen.

⚖️ Risk Parity Calculator

Solves for the portfolio weights that would make every holding contribute equally to overall portfolio risk, rather than equally to dollar value. Uses an iterative algorithm: starting from inverse-volatility weights, it repeatedly calculates each holding's marginal contribution to risk and adjusts weights toward equal contribution, converging over up to 500 iterations. This is a real optimization computed from your actual volatility and correlation data — not an estimate.

🔀 What-If: Holding Change Simulator

Re-runs your full portfolio analysis (volatility, HHI, correlation) with hypothetical changes applied — adding, decreasing, or removing a holding — using the same real-data pipeline as your actual portfolio. The "Shift Score" is a composite of how much your volatility, concentration, and total value would change, expressed as a percentage move from your current portfolio.

🔄 What-If Rebalancing Simulator

Lets you manually adjust each holding's target weight and instantly recalculates portfolio volatility and HHI using the same real volatility/correlation data as your actual portfolio, so you can see the effect of a rebalance before making it.

📉 Historical Stress Test

Applies the broad, publicly documented asset-class declines from five historical market events (1987 Black Monday, the 2000 Dot-com Bust, the 2008 Financial Crisis, the 2020 COVID Crash, and the 2022 Rate Shock) to your portfolio's actual asset-type mix — equities, bonds, crypto, and precious metals each had a different real historical decline in each event. This estimates how your specific mix might have behaved, using real historical asset-class-level outcomes — not your specific holdings' actual behavior during those events, and not a prediction of how a future crash would unfold.

📊 Benchmark Comparison

Compares your real calculated volatility and concentration against four reference portfolios (S&P 500, a 60/40 stock-bond mix, an All-World equity mix, and a bonds-only portfolio), using widely-cited long-term average characteristics for each benchmark. Your side is calculated from your real data; the benchmark figures are established long-term reference averages, not live index data.

🗺️ Sector Rotation Tracker

Compares your actual sector weights against a reference benchmark (S&P 500 or TSX Composite sector composition) and flags sectors where you're meaningfully over- or under-weight (a difference greater than 3 percentage points). Sector classification for your holdings comes from a maintained internal reference list; benchmark sector weights are approximate and updated periodically, not fetched live.

Under-Utilized Sectors

Lists sectors that are typically represented in a portfolio following your chosen strategy but are currently absent from yours, based on a reference sector template for each strategy. This is purely observational — it identifies gaps relative to a typical profile, not a recommendation to add any specific holding.

💰 Dividend Income Calculator

Uses estimated, not real-time, dividend yields. Each holding is matched against a maintained reference table of typical dividend yields by ticker; holdings not in that table fall back to a broad estimate by asset type and market. Projected future income compounds this estimate forward at your selected growth rate. This tool is scoped for future updates to pull real, current yield data — for now, treat the dollar figures as illustrative, not exact.

🌍 Currency Exposure Analysis

Estimates your underlying currency exposure based on where each company earns its revenue — not simply which exchange it's listed on, since many companies earn significant revenue outside their home market. Uses a maintained reference table of typical revenue-currency splits by ticker; holdings not in that table fall back to a broad estimate by market. Approximate only.

🏦 Tax Efficiency Scorer

Scores each holding (1-5) for tax efficiency across account types (Roth IRA/401k/Taxable in the US; TFSA/RRSP/Taxable in Canada), based on general tax treatment rules for that holding's asset type — bond interest as ordinary income, capital gains treatment, dividend withholding tax treaties, and similar established rules. This reflects general tax principles, not your personal tax situation, and is not tax advice.

📈 Portfolio Timeline Projector

Projects your portfolio's future value under three user-adjustable scenarios (bear/base/bull annual return assumptions, defaulted based on your strategy) using standard compound growth with optional monthly contributions, and separately shows an inflation-adjusted ("real") version of the base case. These are illustrative projections based on assumptions you control, not forecasts.